We have bad news. While 77% of Americans want to live to 100 their real chances aren’t so great. But 90? Well, that’s a lot more likely.

The American Society of Actuaries maintains a simple Excel-based spreadsheet that allows you to calculate your chances of living to… well, 95 (for some reason it doesn’t predict beyond that). And a woman aged 65 has just a 1 in 10 chance of reaching 95 and a man just four percent.

However the third of Americans who expect to make it to 90 aren’t that far off the mark. At 65, an American woman has a 28% chance of making it to 90 while men have a 17% chance. Bear in mind these figures don’t take into account important factors for life expectancy like education level, income and ethnicity.

In the UK, the Department of Work and Pensions has also released data to tell you your chances of reaching 100. From it, I learned that I have a 13.6% chance of getting that celebratory card from the Queen. Again, these figures don’t take into account lifestyle factors.

In a previous post, I’ve highlighted a more complex, probably more precise, way of calculating your odds of reaching 100.

In terms of how long you want to live, well the poll reported in Time is in line with previous ones – 90 to 100 is seen as the idea age. This handy ready reckoner shows how your views on ideal longevity match the rest of the US population.

Source: Most Americans Want to Live to 100: Survey